Big Blue's Big Change

Or... The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

The Good: A very solid, proven coach who will keep things rolling over the long haul (if he stays).

My prediction is that there is a 75-80% chance that Michigan fans have just gotten in Rich Rodriguez a coach who is going to have a career that matches the success of Lloyd Carr. That's not a slam at all. Any smart, sensible Michigan fan should breath a huge sigh of relief that they will have a continuation of what Bo started, and Lloyd continued. Given that anybody has a chance of screwing up -- this being a sport where every game carries a 50% chance of failure -- a prediction of 75% success is about as good as it gets.

A remarkable run of being at the top that is really fragile and easy to mess up. Ask Nebraska. Or Miami FL, or Notre Dame, or Washington or...

There is a virtually 100% chance that a loud chunk of the most surly fan base in the nation will be calling for his head within 3 years. It's Michigan. It would happen no matter who they hired. The good news for them is that it's 75% likely that -- like Lloyd Carr before him -- he will 100% not deserve it either.

The Bad: It's not Maize... It's yellow.

Some things are very likely not going to change for the better at Michigan. Wolverine fans have taken for granted the predictable discipline of a team that commits fewer turnovers and penalties than the other guys. While Rodriguez's only head coaching stop -- West Virginia -- was also pretty impressive at ball security during his 2001-2007 time there, penalties were another issue.

Check that... Penalties were an issue!

One year prior to his arrival, in 2000, the Mountaineers were the 28th least-penalized team in the nation. That's good for most, but would be modest by Michigan standards. You expect Michigan teams in the top third of the nation, if not the top ten, or top 5.

Rodriguez's first year, 2001, saw the penalties soar: 102nd best in the nation, out of then-117 teams (now 120).

And it didn't improve. 84th (2002), 101st ('03), 116th ('04), 64th ('05), 114th ('06) and 33rd ('07). Michigan fans used to seeing the other team melt down with yellow flags best get used to a different style of football.

The Ugly: MAJOR growing pains.

The spread-option doesn't need a Pat White, but it sure helps. What it can't live with is Ryan Mallet -- a guy who makes John Navarre look fleet footed. Mallet's got potential to be a decent QB, but not at Michigan. Not anymore. I don't expect him to be the starter by the end of 2008, maybe not even the beginning.

Taking less than 40% of the snaps under center, Mallet accounted for 5 of the 11 fumbles lost by everyone on the team -- including the other QB, all the RB's, WR's an KR's. Anybody who watched him could see why. The boy makes one avert their eyes if he attempts to do anything with the ball other than give it to somebody else.

But even if you put somebody else in at QB -- somebody with even less experience -- you must also bake into the equation: (1) the loss of two senior, high quality linemen, (2) the loss of Mike Hart, and (3) the potential loss of not one but BOTH of the starting WR's, not to mention (4) the everybody else including the QB learning a very different offense. Not pretty.

First season at West Virginia, Rodriguez was 3-8. It was the worst season of West Virginia football since 1978. I strongly suspect this was growing pains from imposing a very new offense on a pile of players who had been trained in and recruited for something more conventional.

Too many ugly variables. He can win with the spread at Michigan and I'm pretty sure that he will. But not in 2008. The coach with the high probability of being a great hire in the long term is also a 50-50 shot to start off as the first guy since before Bo took over to post a losing record on the season.

Short term: Mallett will not finish the year as a starter and Michigan is going to be fighting for bowl eligibility. That will be very ugly indeed for a fan base that thinks 8 wins is a nightmare season.

The "Fire Rod" website goes up before Halloween.