The Michigan Wolverines will be holding their spring practice scrimage at Saline High School.
As a result of the Michigan spring camp thus far, Saline will be favored to win by 3 at home.
Showing posts with label College Football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label College Football. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Sunday, December 16, 2007
Big Blue's Big Change
Or... The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
The Good: A very solid, proven coach who will keep things rolling over the long haul (if he stays).
My prediction is that there is a 75-80% chance that Michigan fans have just gotten in Rich Rodriguez a coach who is going to have a career that matches the success of Lloyd Carr. That's not a slam at all. Any smart, sensible Michigan fan should breath a huge sigh of relief that they will have a continuation of what Bo started, and Lloyd continued. Given that anybody has a chance of screwing up -- this being a sport where every game carries a 50% chance of failure -- a prediction of 75% success is about as good as it gets.
A remarkable run of being at the top that is really fragile and easy to mess up. Ask Nebraska. Or Miami FL, or Notre Dame, or Washington or...
There is a virtually 100% chance that a loud chunk of the most surly fan base in the nation will be calling for his head within 3 years. It's Michigan. It would happen no matter who they hired. The good news for them is that it's 75% likely that -- like Lloyd Carr before him -- he will 100% not deserve it either.
The Bad: It's not Maize... It's yellow.
Some things are very likely not going to change for the better at Michigan. Wolverine fans have taken for granted the predictable discipline of a team that commits fewer turnovers and penalties than the other guys. While Rodriguez's only head coaching stop -- West Virginia -- was also pretty impressive at ball security during his 2001-2007 time there, penalties were another issue.
Check that... Penalties were an issue!
One year prior to his arrival, in 2000, the Mountaineers were the 28th least-penalized team in the nation. That's good for most, but would be modest by Michigan standards. You expect Michigan teams in the top third of the nation, if not the top ten, or top 5.
Rodriguez's first year, 2001, saw the penalties soar: 102nd best in the nation, out of then-117 teams (now 120).
And it didn't improve. 84th (2002), 101st ('03), 116th ('04), 64th ('05), 114th ('06) and 33rd ('07). Michigan fans used to seeing the other team melt down with yellow flags best get used to a different style of football.
The Ugly: MAJOR growing pains.
The spread-option doesn't need a Pat White, but it sure helps. What it can't live with is Ryan Mallet -- a guy who makes John Navarre look fleet footed. Mallet's got potential to be a decent QB, but not at Michigan. Not anymore. I don't expect him to be the starter by the end of 2008, maybe not even the beginning.
Taking less than 40% of the snaps under center, Mallet accounted for 5 of the 11 fumbles lost by everyone on the team -- including the other QB, all the RB's, WR's an KR's. Anybody who watched him could see why. The boy makes one avert their eyes if he attempts to do anything with the ball other than give it to somebody else.
But even if you put somebody else in at QB -- somebody with even less experience -- you must also bake into the equation: (1) the loss of two senior, high quality linemen, (2) the loss of Mike Hart, and (3) the potential loss of not one but BOTH of the starting WR's, not to mention (4) the everybody else including the QB learning a very different offense. Not pretty.
First season at West Virginia, Rodriguez was 3-8. It was the worst season of West Virginia football since 1978. I strongly suspect this was growing pains from imposing a very new offense on a pile of players who had been trained in and recruited for something more conventional.
Too many ugly variables. He can win with the spread at Michigan and I'm pretty sure that he will. But not in 2008. The coach with the high probability of being a great hire in the long term is also a 50-50 shot to start off as the first guy since before Bo took over to post a losing record on the season.
Short term: Mallett will not finish the year as a starter and Michigan is going to be fighting for bowl eligibility. That will be very ugly indeed for a fan base that thinks 8 wins is a nightmare season.
The "Fire Rod" website goes up before Halloween.
The Good: A very solid, proven coach who will keep things rolling over the long haul (if he stays).
My prediction is that there is a 75-80% chance that Michigan fans have just gotten in Rich Rodriguez a coach who is going to have a career that matches the success of Lloyd Carr. That's not a slam at all. Any smart, sensible Michigan fan should breath a huge sigh of relief that they will have a continuation of what Bo started, and Lloyd continued. Given that anybody has a chance of screwing up -- this being a sport where every game carries a 50% chance of failure -- a prediction of 75% success is about as good as it gets.
A remarkable run of being at the top that is really fragile and easy to mess up. Ask Nebraska. Or Miami FL, or Notre Dame, or Washington or...
There is a virtually 100% chance that a loud chunk of the most surly fan base in the nation will be calling for his head within 3 years. It's Michigan. It would happen no matter who they hired. The good news for them is that it's 75% likely that -- like Lloyd Carr before him -- he will 100% not deserve it either.
The Bad: It's not Maize... It's yellow.
Some things are very likely not going to change for the better at Michigan. Wolverine fans have taken for granted the predictable discipline of a team that commits fewer turnovers and penalties than the other guys. While Rodriguez's only head coaching stop -- West Virginia -- was also pretty impressive at ball security during his 2001-2007 time there, penalties were another issue.
Check that... Penalties were an issue!
One year prior to his arrival, in 2000, the Mountaineers were the 28th least-penalized team in the nation. That's good for most, but would be modest by Michigan standards. You expect Michigan teams in the top third of the nation, if not the top ten, or top 5.
Rodriguez's first year, 2001, saw the penalties soar: 102nd best in the nation, out of then-117 teams (now 120).
And it didn't improve. 84th (2002), 101st ('03), 116th ('04), 64th ('05), 114th ('06) and 33rd ('07). Michigan fans used to seeing the other team melt down with yellow flags best get used to a different style of football.
The Ugly: MAJOR growing pains.
The spread-option doesn't need a Pat White, but it sure helps. What it can't live with is Ryan Mallet -- a guy who makes John Navarre look fleet footed. Mallet's got potential to be a decent QB, but not at Michigan. Not anymore. I don't expect him to be the starter by the end of 2008, maybe not even the beginning.
Taking less than 40% of the snaps under center, Mallet accounted for 5 of the 11 fumbles lost by everyone on the team -- including the other QB, all the RB's, WR's an KR's. Anybody who watched him could see why. The boy makes one avert their eyes if he attempts to do anything with the ball other than give it to somebody else.
But even if you put somebody else in at QB -- somebody with even less experience -- you must also bake into the equation: (1) the loss of two senior, high quality linemen, (2) the loss of Mike Hart, and (3) the potential loss of not one but BOTH of the starting WR's, not to mention (4) the everybody else including the QB learning a very different offense. Not pretty.
First season at West Virginia, Rodriguez was 3-8. It was the worst season of West Virginia football since 1978. I strongly suspect this was growing pains from imposing a very new offense on a pile of players who had been trained in and recruited for something more conventional.
Too many ugly variables. He can win with the spread at Michigan and I'm pretty sure that he will. But not in 2008. The coach with the high probability of being a great hire in the long term is also a 50-50 shot to start off as the first guy since before Bo took over to post a losing record on the season.
Short term: Mallett will not finish the year as a starter and Michigan is going to be fighting for bowl eligibility. That will be very ugly indeed for a fan base that thinks 8 wins is a nightmare season.
The "Fire Rod" website goes up before Halloween.
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
"No" Means NO!
Dear Wolverines:
You have rejection issues.
The guy doesn't want you anymore. He's over you.
Yes, he takes your calls. That means he cares about you, values your friendship, and hopes for the best for you. He wants to help you move on.
It does not mean that he wants to get back together. What you need to realize is that Les has a girl. She loves him. She'll do anything for him. They've had great times together, and they have big plans.
Meanwhile, you've been flaky, toyed with his heart, and left him worldly wise and better for it. He doesn't hate you. He still cares for you, but it's more pity than passion at this point. But that's as far as it goes. Don't push it.
Face it. She's hotter and nicer than you are. You can't help hating her, but that doesn't make you right to do so.
He's got memories. You have an obsession. You need to move on. Take a vacation to get your head together. Go sailing or something.
If you keep this up, you'll be in trouble. This is called harassment in some jurisdictions and you're beginning to remind a lot of us of Glenn Close, and that's really creepy. Nobody wants to fool around with the crazy chick and you're doing yourself no favors.
There's lots of nice boys out there. You need to look yourself in the mirror and figure out what you want, who you are. That obsession with the thug from New Jersey was just acting out. We understand that, but you're damned lucky he didn't say "yes." (They don't call it the Big East for nothing -- you never know what you'll catch!)
Take a few months or a year off if you need to. Date one of the local boys on an interim basis. You've been in one long-term relationship after another for 40 years (save for that bruiser who picked the fight with the cops -- he was all wrong for you.) It's silly to think you could just flip a switch and hit the dating circuit like Paris Hilton with Anna Nicole Smith's credit cards.
Relax. Stop making a fool of yourself. Good things will happen.
Sincerely,
Mad Toothfish.
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